To compete is to compute!
This is a success secret that perhaps nobody told you.
If you learn the art of calculating probabilities, you can GREATLY increase your chances of success. Hence, to compete is to compute.
If you cannot compute, you cannot compete. Of course, competing doesn't mean you will win. But at least, you are in the game. (To win, you need an unfair competitive advantage -- a mysterious something that nobody has, and whose very existence should be kept secret).
Junior careerists and first-time entrepreneurs often have no idea of how to calculate the odds of success. Being statistically blind is not a good way to manage a career or a business.
It's actually quite simple. Suppose you want to sell your professional services, and there are 5 critical steps that must be taken in order to close a deal. All you have to do is state these 5 steps, and assign the likely probability of success for each step. Example:
Step 1: Generate a qualified lead
Step 2: Present a compelling sales presentation and answer satisfactorily all questions and objections
Step 3: etc.
Step 4: etc.
Step 5: Close the deal by using the right incentive, at the right time, on the right person, using the right tone and inflection of voice.
The odds could be:
Step 1: 50% probability of success
Step 2: 20%
Step 3: 60%
Step 4: 40 %
Step 5: 40 %
You can see quite clearly that the "bottleneck" is Step 2 (lowest probability of success). Hence, THAT step must be worked on ruthlessly to improve the odds of success.
The exact same process can be used if you're looking for a job, or jockeying at the office for a promotion.
In conclusion, the critical importance of foresightful computation was elegantly captured by the masterful Chinese strategist Sun Tzu centuries ago: "Every battle is won before it's ever fought."
If you learn the art of calculating probabilities, you can GREATLY increase your chances of success. Hence, to compete is to compute.
If you cannot compute, you cannot compete. Of course, competing doesn't mean you will win. But at least, you are in the game. (To win, you need an unfair competitive advantage -- a mysterious something that nobody has, and whose very existence should be kept secret).
Junior careerists and first-time entrepreneurs often have no idea of how to calculate the odds of success. Being statistically blind is not a good way to manage a career or a business.
It's actually quite simple. Suppose you want to sell your professional services, and there are 5 critical steps that must be taken in order to close a deal. All you have to do is state these 5 steps, and assign the likely probability of success for each step. Example:
Step 1: Generate a qualified lead
Step 2: Present a compelling sales presentation and answer satisfactorily all questions and objections
Step 3: etc.
Step 4: etc.
Step 5: Close the deal by using the right incentive, at the right time, on the right person, using the right tone and inflection of voice.
The odds could be:
Step 1: 50% probability of success
Step 2: 20%
Step 3: 60%
Step 4: 40 %
Step 5: 40 %
You can see quite clearly that the "bottleneck" is Step 2 (lowest probability of success). Hence, THAT step must be worked on ruthlessly to improve the odds of success.
The exact same process can be used if you're looking for a job, or jockeying at the office for a promotion.
In conclusion, the critical importance of foresightful computation was elegantly captured by the masterful Chinese strategist Sun Tzu centuries ago: "Every battle is won before it's ever fought."
posted by Super Peter at 2:37 PM
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